Maintain on, now. I do know what you’re pondering. You watched final week’s TNF, checked out tonight’s groups, and checked to see should you had different issues to do. However this sport carries a bit extra fantasy intrigue. Plus, each groups have lesser expectations, so there’s much less pressure. It may very well be enjoyable!
However first, let’s have a look at the matchup from a big-picture perspective.
Two ‘Show-It’ Quarterbacks Collide in NFC Showdown
It’s odd to assume Fields has to show himself in his second yr. All of us noticed his rookie season. However a brand new regime invitations new plans. And Fields doesn’t necessarily have to be part of those plans. Their moves this offseason intimated as a lot. Regardless, his growth is the fulcrum for what occurs subsequent. A minimum of he can nonetheless create beneath duress:
Watching Fields within the open area is enjoyable, however the necessity of his magic brings a little bit of unhappiness into the combo. Per Professional Soccer Focus, he’s tied for essentially the most scrambles of any quarterback. In different phrases, his highlights seemingly aren’t by design. And whereas the short response is to level to Chicago’s personnel, among the blame has to go to the quarterback.
Fields has the slowest common time to throw at 3.35 seconds. In the meantime, the Bears offensive line is eighth in pass block win rate. One thing doesn’t add up right here. Furthermore, he has the second-highest strain charge amongst all starters. So, I’m betting we’ll see extra of him making an attempt to navigate by way of visitors.
Washington’s defensive entrance is fifth in strain charge and fifth in dashing EPA allowed. Nevertheless, their secondary is a piece in progress. Three of their 5 opponents have had multi-passing landing outcomes. The Commanders haven’t pressured an interception since Week 1.
Fields may shine as a passer tonight. He’s made some enhancements, and Washington’s protection might give him a much-needed confidence booster. Hopefully, their offense additionally reveals as much as power a aggressive match.
However what about Carson Wentz?
Robert hit the nail on the pinnacle right here. Undoubtedly, Wentz has been inconsistent beneath middle. However have a look at when these inconsistencies have cropped up. Philadelphia dunked on him in Week 3, and Dallas confirmed him an analogous quantity of affection the next Sunday. Each groups are top-10 in dropback EPA allowed. Wentz is identical man, simply in a Commanders’ uniform.
However we fantasy managers can nonetheless use Wentz tonight. Chicago is seventh in strain charge however has the ninth-lowest adjusted sack charge. On the identical time, Wentz hasn’t been an entire catastrophe beneath strain. Exterior of Weeks 3 and 4, he’s seventh in on-target charge with none interceptions.
The long-term viability of Wentz as Washington’s starter could also be up for debate if issues go south. However for tonight, the offense has the runway to carry out nicely. Terry McLaurin has my eye this night and will probably be one in all my factors of curiosity as Week 6 kicks off.
Factors of Curiosity in TNF
Moreover Ron Rivera casting stones at his quarterback, I don’t really feel the identical anxiousness within the air tonight as I did in Week 5. So, I can concentrate on a few key points of every offense with long-term fantasy impacts. For example, I could have been out on the aforementioned Fields too early.
Justin Fields Examine-In Time
I gave Fields a cross in his season opener. Chicago received, however he solely dropped again to cross 23 instances in the rain. After which the losses got here in back-to-back trend.
By means of Week 3, he had simply 45 makes an attempt. Tom Brady’s thrown 52 instances in consecutive weeks. Fields’ unbelievably excessive sack charge and turnovers had been sufficient to have me nervous about his season and profession. However he might have turned a nook.
Fields’ baseline metrics have steadily risen since Week 3. Admittedly, they’re not nice, however I’ll take a constructive development once I can. A part of the development is his trusting the scheme and his teammates. His completion share on play-action passes for the primary three weeks was ranked thirty first regardless of working it on the fifth-highest charge. He didn’t miss a throw off play motion in Week 5. And everyone knows what he might be as a rusher.
Josh Allen is the one quarterback with the next pressured missed sort out charge than Fields. He has three fewer explosive runs than Jalen Hurts, who leads all passers with 12. Continued progress as a thrower is precisely what we have to see from a younger quarterback on a rebuilding workforce. With Washington’s woes on protection, we should always get one other glimpse of his headway tonight.
The place’s Scary Terry?
Wentz is prime 5 in passing yards and touchdowns. In idea, I purchase it. His supporting solid is best than it was on the Colts, and he’s eighth in pass rate over expected. Nevertheless, Terry McLaurin’s middling function within the (seemingly short-lived) “Wentz resurgence” is a troublesome promote. Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas missed final week, and the recently-extended receiver was third in targets. However I don’t assume it’s his fault.
I don’t assume I’ll get a lot pushback on the thought McLaurin’s their finest receiver. Nevertheless, as their finest, it’s pushed him to the skin at a career-high charge of 68.9%. No different pass-catcher on the workforce can constantly achieve separation or power coverages to honor the boundary like McLaurin.
In consequence, he’s reliant on unstable targets from Wentz. Plus, his red-zone participation has hit an all-time low. For now, he’s simply one other man within the offense.
McLaurin does lead all Washington starters in air yard share. And Washington has the ninth-most passing makes an attempt when within the pink zone. It could take time, however McLaurin’s expertise shouldn’t relegate him to being a solely tertiary choice for Wentz.
However Don’t Bench These Guys
Tonight begins our first week coping with groups on bye. Accidents might have pressured your hand over the past couple of weeks, however our decisions are much more restricted in Week 6. In the event you couldn’t get one in all this week’s sizzling waiver pickups, it’s OK. Perhaps one in all these guys on the finish of your bench may get you thru your matchup.
Brian Robinson will seemingly be the highlight of Washington’s backfield. And, rightfully so. In his debut, he out-touched Antonio Gibson, placing himself in line to steer the Commanders. Nevertheless, the third choice of their dashing assault ought to have some PPR attraction on TNF.
J.D McKissic didn’t have a single dashing try in Week 5. Nevertheless, he was second on the workforce in targets in the identical sport. His route participation has been above 50.0% over the previous three weeks. Most significantly, his targets per route run (TPRR) bounced again in Week 5.
Logan Thomas’ absence works in McKissic’s favor. Final week, the pass-catching again earned each of Wentz’s red-zone targets whereas dealing with 40.0% of the two-minute work. When McKissic is on the sphere, there’s a robust indication the workforce is making an attempt to get him the ball. His 28.0% TPRR leads all Washington pass-catchers by way of 5 weeks.
Once more, I’d give the nod to McKissic in PPR codecs solely. The Commanders have sufficient uncertainty of their working sport because it stands. Nevertheless, McKissic’s function as a receiver has sufficient certainty for a FLEX play on Thursday evening.
It’s been a tough season for Darnell Mooney. Or slightly, it is dependent upon the way you have a look at it. He leads his workforce in goal share (24.4%). His 44.2% air-yard share is essentially the most of any beginning receiver within the league. Nevertheless, he has simply 21 targets on the season. Cooper Kupp had 19 seems in Week 4 alone. However Washington’s secondary is weak sufficient to warrant Mooney as a viable choice tonight.
I do know we’re in Week 5, however reminding myself a couple of participant’s talent stage might be useful. It turns into simpler to parse how a lot of their present scenario is on them versus their environment. Reception Perception provides us a stable start line.
Mooney has been profitable at every stage since his rookie season. His outrageous 17.8 aDOT would have you ever consider he’s solely a deep menace. However, to their credit score, the Bears teaching workers has put him in positions to succeed.
Mooney leads all Chicago receivers in slot targets and screens. Sometimes, they’re the high-percentage throws we would like for our pass-catchers. And but, Mooney and Fields have related on solely half of these throws. So, I can excuse most of Mooney’s lack of manufacturing. Plus, tonight’s matchup needs to be sufficient to forgive the final month of misfires.
I received’t carry up different WR1 stat traces as proof for a stable outing from Mooney. I imply, positive — if he obtained double-digit targets, he could match DeVonta Smith’s numbers. However I’ll be reasonable and concentrate on the place the Bears will seemingly use Mooney.
Slot receivers have scored 4 touchdowns in 5 weeks whereas averaging 54.2 yards on 5.5 targets per sport in opposition to Washington. In the meantime, Washington has given up 54.8 yards per sport on makes an attempt of 15-plus air yards. There’s been a minimum of one deep reception each week. Washington’s deficiencies at every stage give Mooney a stable ground for fantasy functions.
Even on restricted quantity, he generally is a WR3 for Week 6.